基于Box-Cox变换分位数回归与负荷关联因素辨识的中长期概率密度预测

中长期电力负荷预测是电力部门制定电力系统发展规划和稳定运行的重要前提.针对影响中长期电力负荷预测精度的多个因素,本文利用逐步回归方法,从众多影响负荷预测精度的关联因子中,对关键的影响因子进行辨识,并提出基于Box-Cox变换分位数回归和核密度估计相结合的概率密度预测方法,得出不同分位点下未来连续几年的概率密度预测结果,实现了对未来年用电量准确波动区间的预测.以安徽省的历史用电量和社会经济数据为例,进行仿真实验.结果表明:该方法不仅实现了中长期电力负荷概率密度预测,而且利用强关联因素提高了中长期电力负荷概率密度预测的精度,有效解决了考虑多因子的中长期电力负荷概率密度预测问题.     

上海黄浦江两支流河流甲烷含量研究

甲烷是一种重要的温室气体,虽然目前大气中含量远小于二氧化碳,但排放增长率却大于后者.研究区域为上海市黄浦江支流苏州河和淀浦河,通过实验数据对比城郊春夏的甲烷排放的差异,探讨甲烷产生的机制及其与环境因子的关系,这将有助于研究河流甲烷排放对于环境变化的影响.研究结果认为河流甲烷主要来源于水中沉积物,其产生与水质、温度等因素相关;同时甲烷摩尔浓度与硝酸根离子质量体积比存在负相关性,与铵根离子质量体积比和有机碳质量分数存在正相关性.     

Incorporating textual and management factors into financial distress prediction: A comparative study of machine learning methods

Financial distress prediction (FDP) has been widely considered as a promising approach to reducing financial losses. While financial information comprises the traditional factors involved in FDP, nonfinancial factors have also been examined in recent studies. In light of this, the purpose of this study is to explore the integrated factors and multiple models that can improve the predictive performance of FDP models. This study proposes an FDP framework to reveal the financial distress features of listed Chinese companies, incorporating financial, management, and textual factors, and evaluating the prediction performance of multiple models in different time spans. To develop this framework, this study employs the wrapper-based feature selection method to extract valuable features, and then constructs multiple single classifiers, ensemble classifiers, and deep learning models in order to predict financial distress. The experiment results indicate that management and textual factors can supplement traditional financial factors in FDP, especially textual ones. This study also discovers that integrated factors collected 4 years prior to the predicted benchmark year enable a more accurate prediction, and the ensemble classifiers and deep learning models developed can achieve satisfactory FDP performance. This study makes a novel contribution as it expands the predictive factors of financial distress and provides new findings that can have important implications for providing early warning signals of financial risk.     

数智化时代下的创业影响及政策转型

在综述数智化创业活动影响及创业政策需求的基础上,依据产业政策的经典分析框架讨论了数智化影响下创业政策调整的对象和过程。从个人、团队、团队间三个层次分析并总结数智化时代下的创业影响特征,同时提出了数智化对创业政策的新诉求,归纳创业政策的主体、政策适应过程、政策目标制定三方面新特征,为政府创业政策的转型提供方向。研究归纳的多层次主体资源整合、边界与过程融合、创造需求新起点等数智化转型特征与政策转变要点能够为创业政策转型提供理论参考。     

Bird community characteristics as indicators of sustainable management in olive grove ecosystems of Central Greece

The role of breeding birds as indicators of sustainable management in olive groves was investigated. The data revealed significantly higher alpha diversity in organic and abandoned olive groves and maquis than in conventional ones. The highest beta diversity was found between the following pairs: organic olive groves–maquis, and abandoned olive groves–maquis. Breeding bird diversity, Heteroptera, Hymenoptera, Hemiptera and Coleoptera densities positively influenced bird species richness in organic olive groves and maquis, and additionally, manure application positively influenced bird species richness in organic ones. Bird species richness was negatively influenced by pesticide and inorganic fertilizer application in conventional ones. Moreover, isopod density was unimportant in explaining breeding bird richness in organic olive groves. Finally, our study suggests a difference in bird communities of various olive groves as a result of different management and practices, and concludes that birds might serve as indicators of overall olive grove health. Furthermore, these findings could be used as a tool for prediction of breeding bird species richness probability in different olive grove management systems and maquis. Finally, the results of the present study may contribute to highlighting some aspects of the effect of different farming practices on the dynamics of Mediterranean bird communities.     

湖泊硅藻在古环境重建中的应用研究

硅藻研究对古环境重建具有重要的现实意义.文章分析了影响硅藻生长的主要环境因子:温度、营养元素和植被等,并且对湖泊硅藻在重建古环境方面的应用、研究进展及专家学者的研究进行了详细的论述.同时针对湖泊硅藻研究过程中的不足,展开一定的探讨与展望,为以后湖泊硅藻研究的发展和完善提供一定的理论依据.     

安徽省校园足球开展现状及影响因素分析

2013年安徽省新增六市校园足球试点,形成“1+6”格局,为带动全省校园足球的开展提供新的契机。为安徽省校园足球可持续发展,从试点学校基本情况、校园足球联赛开展现状及取得的成果三个方面,运用文献资料法、数理统计法、问卷调查法对安徽省校园足球开展的总体情况进行分析。研究认为,目前安徽省校园足球开展状况较好,已获得一定成果,并将继续稳步发展。但仍存在一些问题,如经济资源不足、升学压力大、非试点学校校园足球开展较差等。针对上述问题,提出些许建议,以期对今后校园足球活动的开展提供理论支持。     

影响中药饮片质量的因素及对策探讨

分析了影响中药饮片质量的原药材质量、饮片加工及销售过程中的质量问题。为确保中药饮片质量,针对存在的问题探讨了如下对策：加强道地药材的发展和良好农业规范（GAP）种植基地建设;加强中药饮片炮制规范化和标准化管理;加强对中药饮片生产企业和中药材交易市场监管力度,规范市场经营。     

东寨港红树林丛枝菌根真菌侵染和孢子密度及其影响因子研究

丛枝菌根(AM)结构存在于多种红树植物根内,但目前对于红树林中AM真菌的研究还未能完全揭示其存在的原因和状况。研究通过对海南东寨港红树林中不同潮位16种红树植物根内AM侵染情况、AM真菌孢子密度以及土壤理化因子开展调查,以了解东寨港红树林中AM真菌的存在状况及其影响因素。结果表明12种红树植物与AM真菌存在共生关系,其中海漆(Excoecaria agallocha)、许树(Clerodendrum inerme)、水黄皮(Pongamia pinnata)和黄槿(Hibiscus tiliaceus)侵染率较高,均高于55%;16种植物根际土壤中均检测到AM真菌孢子,每25 g土壤的平均孢子密度为(25.7±2.7)个。方差分析表明,不同宿主植物根内AM侵染情况差异显著;潮位对AM侵染率和孢子密度均具有显著影响,表现为高潮位显著高于中、低潮位,而中低潮位间无显著差异。线性回归分析表明土壤含水率、电导率和有效磷含量可能是影响东寨港红树林生境中AM侵染率和孢子密度的主要土壤因子。     

提质煤与高炉喷吹用烟煤混合燃烧特性及动力学分析

利用热重分析仪对提质煤与高炉喷吹用烟煤单独燃烧过程、不同比例混合燃烧过程进行了研究。考察了提质煤添加量与混煤燃烧的特征参数、相互影响程度之间的相关性,并用DAEM动力学模型计算了不同提质煤配加量时混煤的活化能。结果表明:提质煤单独燃烧速率要快于高炉喷吹用烟煤单独燃烧速率;随着提质煤配比的增加,混煤着火温度降低,可燃指数和综合燃烧特性指数增大,燃烧性能变好;提质煤与烟煤混燃相互作用因子K值均大于1,两者在燃烧过程中具有相互促进作用;随着提质煤配比量的增加,混煤的活化能逐渐降低,混煤燃烧活性逐渐变强。